The trend in domestic shares will hinge on the state election
result Tuesday, and a clear win for the Samajwadi Party in Uttar
Pradesh, as predicted by the exit polls, could further dampen
sentiment. In that case, the Samajwadi Party will not need
Congress' support to form a government in Uttar Pradesh, which
would imply that the latter could struggle to remain in control at
the Centre. Most exit polls have predicted Congress would come
fourth in the state. However, the exit polls can be misleading and
it will be prudent to wait for the final results. Shares of Anil
Ambani-promoted companies that ended up 2-6% could get a
further boost Tuesday if the election result favours the Samajwadi
Party. We see strong support for the Nifty at 5200 and do not
expect the index to slip below that mark. Resistance for Nifty is
seen at 5370 levels. Volatility may rise in the coming days as
market reacts to a spate of key events such as IIP and inflation
data, RBI's policy meet Union Budget and advance tax numbers
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